Celtics vs Warriors NBA Finals Game 4 Picks, Betting Odds: Expect Boston to delay Stephen Curry and Co.

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With the 2021-22 NBA regular season now on the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks during the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

featured game | Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors

The number I can’t beat right now is Stephen Curry having almost 48% of his kicks watched in the regular season, but only about 27% being watched in this series. The Celtics have done such a magnificent job of taking Golden State’s off-ball actions that their only form of constant offense is Curry playing one-on-one. And hey, Stephen Curry is pretty good at playing one-on-one… but he’s 6-2 and 34. Him playing one-on-one and, say, LeBron James playing one-on-one are very different things. As wonderfully as Curry has played this postseason, he still doesn’t have a 40-point game. Jimmy Butler had four of them because Butler’s size allowed him to accumulate layups and free-throw attempts in ways that Curry just can’t. Curry’s 47-point game against the Raptors in the 2019 Finals was an outlier. He’s not equipped to be the main and end of an offense, but without Golden State’s system generating the easy buckets it normally does, the onus is on his teammates to create their own kicks to back him up. None of them were able to do it. Until they do, I will choose Boston. The pick: Celtics -4

All of the above apply to the Golden State offense. The Boston offense is more complicated. Jaylen Brown appears to have cracked the Draymond Green code in Game 3… but Jayson Tatum is shooting down 34% of the field in this series and grabbed his shoulder early in Game 3. If the Warriors don’t trust him to score as easily as he would, they will. they can divert defensive attention elsewhere and make life more difficult for everyone else. I want to see Tatum play at his typical offensive level before picking another one in this series. The choice: Under 214

I can’t believe I’m about to do this, but… I think Draymond Green is about to recover from the attack. He hit over the top in game 2. In game 1 he missed 10 shots… but when you try 12 over the course of a game, it’s very difficult no to score eight points. He surpassed eight points in five of his six previous games before the finals. When you handle the ball as much as he does and you’re playing against a team as prone to turnover as Boston, it’s just as easy to walk away with two random points per quarter. That’s all Green needs to do. The choice: Green above 7.5 points

I don’t think Tatum’s 13 assists in Game 1 were all that sustainable, but I see no reason why he can’t repeat his nine assists in Game 3. Golden State is holding him up quite often, and he’s grown enough as a passer. to enjoy it. Tatum played 41 or more minutes in 14 playoff games and had six assists in nine of those games. As long as this game is competitive, Tatum should pass the ball enough to rack up a decent number of assists. The pick: Tatum with 5.5+ assists

Andrew Wiggins has eight steals and blocks combined so far this series, and it’s a suitable matchup for him to rack up defensive stats. The Celtics are notoriously sloppy with the ball, and it’s not like he’s blocking players over whom he has a massive height advantage. He hit Brown’s sweater twice. Given his athleticism, size, and general activity, that line seems a little low. The Pick: Wiggins with 1.5+ Steals and Blocks combined

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